Evening Wrap: ASX 200 recoups more ground as tariff fears subside, BHP, CBA, ANZ lead blue-chip bargain hunting (2025)

The ASX 200 logged another welcome gain, following on from Friday's dip-then-recovery. Investors cheered a further watering down of US tariff measures, this time on certain key tech goods.

This helped Information Technology stocks lead the gains (+2.6%), with WiseTech Global (WTC) (+3.1%) and Xero (XRO) (+2.3%) bouncing strongly.

Resources also rebounded, helped by solid gains in majors BHP Group (+2.7%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.2%), and South32 (S32) (+2.2%).

Gold miners continued their winning ways, leveraging another strong session for gold on Friday, with Northern Star Resources (+1.5%) and Evolution Mining (EVN) (+2.6%) among the sector's leaders.

The big banks also featured highly on the winners list, adding substantial weight to the index's rally. Here, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.7%) and ANZ Group (ANZ) (+1.7%) were notable performers.

Really, only the defensive Consumer Staples lagged (-0.45%), weighed down by supermarket operators Woolworths (WOW) (-0.5%) and Coles (COL) (-0.24%) as investors shunned stable earners for more growth-oriented plays.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, Gold, and US 10-year & 30-year Treasury Bond Yields in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Mon 14 Apr 25, 5:22pm (AEST)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 102.1 points higher at 7,748.6, 1.34% from its session low and just 0.20% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by an impressive 228 to 57.

.

But, the ending point loss, some 122 points above its low, suggests fund managers were prepared to bet we’ve reached the inflection point of this phase of President Trump’s great trade experiment. The hope is that with his backflip this week, we're more likely to see common sense prevail – and further moderations in policy – rather than escalations of it.

–Friday Evening Wrap

How are you going at following all the tariff developments and calculating their impact on asset prices? You know, risks versus reward and all that stuff!? If you’ve chosen to manage your own portfolio, it’s kinda your job, right!? 🤔

Well, no doubt then, you’ve read about Friday evening’s (our time) latest round of tariff tweaks:

(The following product categories are exempt from the 125% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods and the 10% baseline tariff on goods from other countries, but not a separate 20% tariff on all Chinese goods)

• Smartphones (HTSUS code 8517.13.00.00)

• Computers and Laptops (HTSUS code 8471, covering automatic data processing machines, disc drives, etc.)

• Semiconductors (including CPUs, GPUs, and other integrated circuits)

• Flat Panel Displays (e.g., LCD panels, LEDs for TVs)

• Memory Chips (e.g., flash drives, memory cards, solid-state drives)

• Solar Cells

• Hard Drives

• Routers and Modems

• Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment

If you weren’t aware, keep up! Because rumour has it, there are even more tweaks on the way tonight our time.

The good news is, even if you can’t (or couldn’t be bothered) keep up with all this blatant policy on the run, you don’t really have to.

As I mentioned Friday – and I think I kinda nailed my commentary across that whole wrap – the market is probably shifting towards the position that Liberation Day’s big blunt instrument of “reciprocal” tariffs is the high point of stupidity / genius depending on your view of President Trump.

Friday night’s rally suggests this, as does our faithful follow what the US does rally today.

I suggest there’s a window where things will be perceived as getting better – or at least not worse. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the "Trump Put" rally phase!

...That is, until at some point the penny drops and there's a realisation of what damage has actually been done. As in, President Trump’s policies have already created enough volatility in financial markets and across trade and supply chains to break something.

So, for example, XYZ hedge fund has gone to the wall, taking with it billions in investors’ funds and creditors dollars…then we may have a little “systemic risk moment” – those are always good for a free fall in asset prices…

Or, various economies start dipping into recessions, or at the very least various segments of various economies do. You know, people lose their jobs, have to sell their homes, and all of those nasty headlines – GFC style.

(Q. Will there be a “Fed Put” in this second scenario…many think not!)

There will be variations on the above themes, and these items will take many weeks/months or even many months to play out. So, the question you need to contemplate now is this: Has the market adequately factored in these risks – or is it solely obsessed with the aforementioned “not as bad as initially expected / Trump Put” narrative?

US stock markets do love to go up…🚀

Some food for thought. Order of magnitude, the latest exemptions cover roughly 22-30% of U.S. imports from China by value – leaving by definition, at least 70% left behind – and that's before we consider China's and other major trading partners' retaliatory tariffs implemented or on the way.

For your reference, consider these categories still subject to the current 145% tariff on Chinese imports to the US:

• Apparel and Textiles (e.g., clothing, footwear, fabrics)

• Furniture (e.g., metal, wooden, or plastic furniture)

• Toys and Sporting Goods

• Home Appliances (e.g., air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines)

• Automotive Parts (subject to a 25% tariff starting in May 2025, plus the 145% if not exempted)

• Steel and Aluminum Products (subject to a 25% tariff from March 2025, plus the 145% unless specifically exempted)

• Syringes and Needles (facing high Section 301 tariffs of up to 100%, plus the 145%)

• Electric Vehicles and Batteries (Section 301 tariffs of 100% and 25%, respectively, plus the 145%)

• Certain Critical Minerals (Section 301 tariffs of 25-50%, plus the 145%)

• Consumer Goods (e.g., luggage, handbags, kitchenware)

• Industrial Machinery (non-electronic, unless specifically exempted)

• Agricultural Products (e.g., processed foods, unless targeted by Chinese retaliation)

• Chemicals and Plastics

We could be in a “lull before the storm” phase where stocks are free to rally until something finally breaks. But, hey – who’s to say something will break!? And that's the fun of it all.

Do not unfasten those seatbelts passengers! 🎢

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Fighting retreat becomes fighting advance...for now! 💪 (click here for full size image)

In Friday's Comp update I described Thursday’s candle as a “fighting retreat”. I noted that the click-bait negative headlines across mainstream media relating to Thursday's move, as usual, completely failed to observe the price action.

Few journos are technical analysts!

No, Thursday's price action was not bearish, but rather it suggested a “credible whack of buy the dip” lingered in the system.

I even spoke of the prospect that investors had changed their mentality on the basis “that Trump will continue to back down as his advisers increasingly tell him he must or face US economic and or political Armageddon.”

The “Trump Put” was in play, so to speak.

Friday’s price action appears to confirm my hunch, and it likely sets us up for a test of the dynamic supply at the short term downtrend ribbon tonight.

I’ll be brief, because not a great deal has changed here in terms of our understanding/assumptions of what’s going on in the demand-supply environment:

1. A test of the short term trend ribbon that ends in a strong demand-side candle (i.e., long white-bodied and or long downward pointing shadow) closing deep within the ribbon: Indication = Bullish.

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2. Abovementioned test, by the close, instead shows the supply-side quashed an early rally, resulting in an upward pointing shadow into the supply zone (and or black-bodied candle): Indication = Disturbingly Bearish.

3. I can’t increase my risk position until I see a close above, retest, and hold of the long term uptrend ribbon (look up and think about how much must transpire for that to occur!) – and I can’t reduce my risk any further because I’m already at my most conservative risk setting – so it’s all a big ball of ho-hum for the time being 🤷.

For 1 and 2, volume will be important. The greater the volume in Scenario 1 = The greater the supply removed from the system. This will assist any future rally as it would signal a bunch of funds mistakenly moved to cash (and FOMO will kick in soon enough!).

The greater the volume in Scenario 2 = The greater the demand that was consumed by the supply (i.e., last of the buy the dippers entered and are likely exhausted!). This would indicate a bunch of funds mistakenly got caught long by the end of the day, knowing the session's price action signals they just entered at the top of the rally!

The price action will tell us everything we need to know. We're not far away from a critical level, so we probably won't have to wait very long. So, it's simple: Get out the pop corn and see what candle we get 🍿!

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Happy to follow the leader 🏃‍♂️🏃‍♀️ (click here for full size image)

A near identical move to the Comp – so largely "ditto" here. I suspect we need to get the answer to Scenario 1 or Scenario 2 above and then we'll have a better idea of what we're allowed to do...🤦

Watch the price action in the short term trend ribbon. We should have an answer by the end of the week (this happens to be Thursday this week 🐣!)

US 10 Year & 30 Year T-Bond Yield

Brain bending bonds! 🤯 (click here for full size image)

Disturbingly, the yield on US 10's rose again on Friday (second last candle 👆). Given stocks were so strong, though, I must assume this is less to do with Trump trade policy versus "financial markets and economies breakage" and more to do with the other major theme driving US Treasuries' prices: "Screw you America, we don't want your debt anymore!".

Still a breakage, still potentially very bad, but probably not going to have a negative impact on markets in the very short term. I put to you, then, Friday's move in stocks and bonds remains consistent with my relief rally theory.

Note that final, small black candle is today's live session. We must discount it, but it does at least for now suggest risk aversion is moderating.

If you've really tuned your brains into this whole bond market signals thing, then you probably just thought – wait a minute Carl, falling bond yields equate to rising bond prices, and that's consistent with money moving back into bonds – how can that be a sign of moderating risk aversion? 🤔

Good observation! In this case it does make sense (I know, there seems to be more "cases" for the bond market than one can poke the proverbial stick at!). Recall why/when cash was being sucked out of the bond market. It was being sucked out of the stock market at the same time, too.

It was a move out of all volatile financial securities and into the 100% bulletproof safety of cash. Fund managers getting out their shotguns and sitting on their cash-stuffed mattresses? Remember?

Cash flows back into US Treasuries is healthy as this is consistent with markets moving out of panic mode.

US 30 Year T-Bond Yield (click here for full size image)

Here's the 30's for your reference. We can see a better showing from longer term bonds on Friday (also good), and a far more encouraging showing in today's live candle. Markets are healing.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 11:30 AUS Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes March 31-April 1 meeting

Wednesday

• 12:00 CHN "Data Dump" March

  • New Home Prices m/m: -0.14% m/m previous

  • GDP q/y: +5.2% p.a. forecast vs +5.4% p.a. previous

  • Industrial Production y/y: +5.7% p.a. forecast vs +5.9% p.a. previous

  • Retail Sales y/y: +4.2% p.a. forecast vs +4.0% p.a. previous

  • Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y: +4.1% p.a. forecast vs +4..1% p.a. previous

  • Unemployment Rate: +5.3% p.a. forecast vs +5.4% p.a. previous

• USA Core Retail Sales m/m (+0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m previous)

Thursday

• 03:00 USA Fed Chair Powell Speech about economic outlook

• 11:30 Employment Data March

  • Employment Change: +40,200 forecast vs -52,800 in February

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in February

• 22:15 EUR ECB Main Financing Rate (-0.25% p.a. to 2.4% p.a. forecast)

Friday

• ALL DAY Public Holiday

Latest News

More News

Trading higher

• +24.2% MTM Critical Metals (MTM) - Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +21.1% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - NEU confirms primary endpoints for Phase 3 trial in PMS, general strength across the broader Biotechnology sector today.

• +16.3% Droneshield (DRO) - $32.2 million Asia Pacific contracts.

• +14.1% Regal Partners (RPL) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +11.3% Koonenberry Gold (KNB) - Enmore 2nd hole returns 172.9m @ 2.07g/t Au inc 25m @5.23g/t, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.0% Novonix (NVX) - No news, general strength across the broader Battery Materials sector today.

• +10.9% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +9.7% Siteminder (SDR) - No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +8.4% Antipa Minerals (AZY) - Minyari Dome Pre-Feasibility Study Advancement Update, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, general strength across the broader Resources sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +8.1% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, general strength across the broader Biotechnology sector today.

• +7.9% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.8% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, general strength across the broader Battery Materials sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.7% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - No news, general strength across the broader Resources sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +6.6% Alpha HPA (A4N) - No news, general strength across the broader Battery Materials sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

Trading lower

• -17.2% EBR Systems (EBR) - FDA Approval of WiSE CRT System and CEO Investor Presentation for FDA PMA Approval Webinar.

• -3.8% Appen (APX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.8% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Hedge Fund ETF (SNAS) - No news, short Nasdaq ETF.

• -3.0% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.0% Meeka Metals (MEK) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -3.0% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) - No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Staples sector today.

• -2.9% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear - CH ETF (BBUS) - , short US equities ETF.

• -2.9% BetaShares Australian Strong Bear ETF (BBOZ) - , short Australian Equities ETF.

• -2.9% Cettire (CTT) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder, (First Sentier), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.4% DigiCo REIT (DGT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.3% Ansell (ANN) - No news, price target cut to $33.40 from $37.20 at Morgan Stanley (due to negative impact of tariffs on earnings).

• -2.2% AMP (AMP) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• Alpha HPA (A4N)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

• Air New Zealand (AIZ)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$0.830 from NZ$0.850

• Ansell (ANN)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.40 from $37.20

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.25

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $9.75

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.00

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $90.75

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.20

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.00

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.30

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $30.50

• Ebos Group (EBO)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$41.72 from NZ$42.00

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $39.15 from $38.56

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10

• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.60

• GQG Partners (GQG)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.63

• Harvey Norman (HVN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $73.80

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

• Inghams Group (ING)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $111.00

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.30 from $7.10

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00

• Monadelphous Group (MND)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $16.20 from $15.90

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $191.00 from $224.00

• Metcash (MTS)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30

• Monash IVF Group (MVF)

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.450

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.090 from $1.450

  • Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.250 from $1.750

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.50

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $28.40 from $33.90

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.75 from $31.25

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $29.00

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.40

• Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $23.80

• Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $44.00

• Regal Partners (RPL)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from $4.30

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $4.20 from $3.10

• Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.60 from $8.95

• Sayona Mining (SYA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.040

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.70

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.25

• WEB Travel Group (WEB)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.40

• Wesfarmers (WES)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $30.80

Scans

Top Gainers

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Top Fallers

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52 Week Lows

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52 Week Lows

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Near Highs

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

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Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.